Mustek's projected 270% earnings surge for the six months ending December 2025 reveals more about South Africa tech market fragmentation than genuine continental integration progress. While the company celebrates growth amid its stalled Novus takeover, this story exposes the persistent barriers blocking meaningful pan-African ICT consolidation.

Market Concentration Without Regional Vision

The South Africa ICT market's structure tells the real story. With ten largest providers controlling roughly 45% of 2025 revenue in a market projected to reach 350 billion ZAR by 2029, we're seeing domestic consolidation without cross-border ambition. Mustek's earnings explosion coincides with moderate M&A activity focused on local service portfolio expansion rather than continental reach. This suggests South African tech players remain trapped in national silos despite AfCFTA promises. The 7% CAGR growth to 2029 benefits existing players like Mustek, but creates no meaningful bridges to other African markets. Infrastructure limitations and skills shortages compound this isolation, making each national market a fortress rather than a stepping stone.

regulatory Fragmentation Kills Scale Dreams

The stalled Novus acquisition highlights deeper integration failures. While IT services hold 32.73% market share driven by cloud migrations, regulatory influences around data privacy through POPIA create additional compliance layers that discourage cross-border deals. Each African country maintains separate data sovereignty requirements, making continental tech consolidation prohibitively complex. Cybersecurity challenges vary wildly between jurisdictions, forcing companies to navigate dozens of incompatible frameworks. This regulatory maze explains why hyperscalers like AWS and Google expand through local zones rather than integrated continental strategies.

Mustek's earnings surge masks a troubling reality: African tech success remains stubbornly national. Without harmonized regulations and genuine policy coordination, expect more isolated growth stories and fewer transformative continental players.