OliliFood's Lagos gambit: small fry in a big pond
OliliFood wants to take on Lagos. After six years in Asaba and Warri, the food delivery startup has processed 120,000 orders and generated ₦2 billion ($1.5 million) in gross merchandise value, according to CEO Nweze. That sounds like a respectable base. But put it in context: Nigeria's foodservice market was worth $11.09 billion in 2026. OliliFood's entire six-year GMV is roughly 0.02% of that. This is not a regional champion. It's a hobby at scale.
The numbers don't justify the hype
Online food delivery in Nigeria is expected to grow at 9.86% annually through 2034, per IMARC Group. By 2031, the sub-sector could hit $1.9 billion. That's the lure pulling OliliFood into Lagos. But the company has only ever operated in two small cities where logistics are simpler and competition is thin. Lagos is a warzone. Chowdeck, Glovo, Bolt Food, and Jumia Food are already fighting over the same customers with deeper pockets and established networks. OliliFood arrives with six years of experience in a market that behaves nothing like Lagos. Its entire GMV is what Chowdeck might do in a few weeks.
I question whether the company understands the math. The total addressable market in Lagos is huge, but the cost of acquisition and delivery is also huge. Investors should watch the burn rate closely. If OliliFood tries to undercut on price to grab share, it will hemorrhage cash. If it tries to differentiate by focusing on smaller neighborhoods, it risks becoming too niche to matter.
What the expansion really signals
The move to Lagos tells me two things. First, the company has probably hit a ceiling in Asaba and Warri. 120,000 orders over six years is roughly 55 orders per day across two cities. That's hardly hypergrowth. Second, Trazo (OliliFood's parent) is either well-capitalized and feeling bullish or desperate to show venture capital a growth story. The Mordor Intelligence report projects the overall foodservice market will grow at 11.55% CAGR through 2031. But online delivery is a smaller slice. A 9.86% growth rate is steady, not explosive. Piling into a maturing market with a thin track record is a bet, not a strategy.
The risk I see
The biggest risk is that OliliFood burns its capital trying to compete with well-funded incumbents that are already unprofitable. Chowdeck and Glovo are not profitable either; they survive on investor money. A new entrant with a weaker balance sheet will struggle to survive a price war. I also worry about execution. Building logistics in Lagos requires different skills than in Warri. Traffic, security, payment fragmentation, and customer expectations are all more complex. The company's 120,000-order history does not prove it can handle Lagos density.
Who loses? Probably the investors who come in late. Who quietly benefits? The incumbents, because OliliFood's presence will force them to spend more on marketing, which raises the barrier for the next newcomer. And maybe the delivery riders, who get more work.
As of 2026, OliliFood should prove it can win in one Lagos neighborhood before claiming it will take on the city. This still looks like a small player running up a hill it hasn't climbed before. Expect high cash burn and a possible pivot within 18 months if the numbers don't add up.