BoG's GH¢15.6bn Loss Risks Payments Trust
The Bank of Ghana is expected to report a net loss of GH¢15.6 billion for 2025. That follows GH¢35 billion in negative equity from stabilisation costs, according to News Ghana.
For investors in Ghana's payment companies and mobile money operators, this isn't just a fiscal number. It's a risk signal.
Central bank losses erode confidence
A central bank with negative equity needs government recapitalisation or monetary financing. Both paths hurt. More money printing drives inflation and weakens the cedi. That directly eats into the value of mobile money floats. Agents holding cedi-denominated float lose purchasing power. Transaction volumes in real terms shrink.
Ghana's mobile money agents already struggle with float management. The e-levy suppressed transaction growth. Now add central bank credibility risk. If confidence in the cedi slips, users hoard foreign currency or move to crypto. That reduces mobile money activity and agent commissions.
A financially strained regulator may also cut oversight resources. Fraud risks rise. The 2024 Ghana fraud report showed increasing SIM swap and phishing attacks targeting mobile money. Weaker supervision would make that worse.
Stabilisation costs, likely from forex intervention and bond losses, are the main driver, per the same report. Those costs aren't going away soon. The government's fiscal deficit and debt service keep pressuring the central bank's balance sheet.
Payments infrastructure and policy risks
Expect pressure on GHIPSS to raise transaction fees to cover infrastructure costs. That would hit mobile money operators and bank transfers. Also, the central bank's ability to support RTGS reliability could be questioned. Downtime becomes more costly.
Who loses? Agents with high cedi exposure and the two dominant mobile money networks: MTN MoMo and AirtelTigo Money. Both rely on a stable macro environment to grow. Who quietly benefits? Fintechs offering forex hedging, stablecoin products, or Bitcoin P2P. But Ghana's crypto regulation remains fuzzy.
The bigger risk: a repeat of the e-levy mistake. The government may be tempted to impose new taxes on digital transactions to plug fiscal holes. The e-levy experience showed how transaction taxes can backfire. Another would kill the inclusion gains of the past decade.
The BoG's loss isn't just budget accounting. It's a canary for the payment system's operating environment. Investors should watch the recapitalisation plan and the central bank's independence in 2026. If the government forces the central bank to buy more bonds, the loss cycle continues.