Nigeria tech policy is shifting toward state control of critical infrastructure, and Minister Bosun Tijani's "thorough assessment" of MTN's $2.2 billion IHS Towers acquisition reveals the new playbook. This isn't routine regulatory review—it's strategic positioning.

The Real Infrastructure Play

MTN plans to fund the acquisition using approximately $1.1 billion in cash on IHS's balance sheet, alongside available liquidity and debt at the group level. The ministry's emphasis on "strategic importance of telecoms infrastructure" and "policy directions of the President" signals Nigeria wants more control over who owns the towers that power its digital economy.

IHS generates around two thirds of its revenue and EBITDA from Nigeria, operating around 41% of its towers there. The transaction would increase MTN's exposure to Nigeria significantly. This creates a perfect storm: a South African telecom giant buying critical Nigerian infrastructure while the government pushes economic nationalism. The ministry's collaboration with "relevant regulatory authorities" suggests multiple agencies will scrutinize this deal, each with different agendas.

What Investors Should Expect

The assessment will likely demand local ownership requirements, infrastructure sharing mandates, or technology transfer conditions. Nigeria's track record shows regulatory reviews often become negotiations for better terms rather than simple approvals. MTN described the deal as a "unique opportunity" to buy back its towers and strengthen government partnerships—that language suggests they're already preparing concessions.

Shares in U.S.-listed IHS Holdings closed 5% lower at $8.23, giving the company a market value of roughly $2.76 billion. The market is pricing in regulatory risk, but the real concern is precedent. If Nigeria extracts significant concessions, other African governments will follow suit on infrastructure deals.

This signals the end of easy foreign acquisitions of strategic African assets. Expect longer approval timelines and higher political costs across the continent.